Shutdown vs. Debt Ceiling, August 30, 2017

The Sevens Report is everything you need to know about the markets in your inbox by 7am, in 7 minutes or less. Start your free two-week trial today—see what a difference the Sevens Report can make.

Washington will be at the epicenter of markets in September, and for four reasons: Progress (or lack thereof) on tax cuts, Fed balance sheet reduction, debt ceiling increase and government shutdown. I’ve covered the first two in the Report at length, but I haven’t spent a lot of time on the latter two events.

And, once media coverage moves on from the tragedy of Hurricane Harvey, as it undoubtedly will shortly, it will refocus on Washington, and specifically the debt ceiling and government shutdown, as both are coming up fast.

The shutdown and debt ceiling fight have the potential to cause a pullback in stocks, and both will undoubtedly be referenced by scary headlines on the financial media.

In reality, the chances of either event actually hitting stocks is low, and I want to spend a few minutes to give you the “need to know” on each event, and what needs to happen for either event to push stocks lower.

Government Shutdown Deadline Dates: September 30th. Why It’s A Potential Problem: The border wall. What Needs To Happen: Congress must pass a budget by that date or begin to close non-essential government services. Last Time It Happened: 2013. Will It Cause A Pullback? Almost certainly not.

The fight here seems to revolve around Trump’s border wall. The president wants funding for the wall included in the budget, but Democrats have vowed to vote against any budget that includes the border wall.

That stalemate could cause a shutdown as Republicans would have to vote as a block to pass the budget over Democrat opposition, and that’s just not something that’s likely to happen.

What Likely Happens: September 30th isn’t a hard deadline, as Congress can pass short-term “continuing resolutions” to keep the government funded and open while the negotiations get settled. Probability of a Shutdown: 20%.

Debt Ceiling. Deadline Date(s): September 30th, midOctober. Why It’s a Potential Problem: Because it’s Washington, and they can’t do anything easily (at least not so far). What Needs to Happen: Congress must pass a debt limit extension by the deadline. Last Time It Happened: Never. The government has never failed to raise the debt ceiling, although there was a big scare in 2011 that spooked markets. Will It Cause A Pullback? Almost certainly not.

There isn’t any specific issue that could cause the debt ceiling to not be extended, but again, it’s Washington—so nearly anything is possible.

What Likely Happens: Of the two issues (government shutdown and debt ceiling) the debt ceiling is the much more serious one, because there isn’t the ability to kick the can down the road like there is with funding the government (i.e. no short-term extensions). So, I’d expect the debt ceiling will be raised with (relatively) little drama. Probability of a Default (i.e. not raising the debt ceiling): 15% (and that’s probably a mild over estimation).

Bottom Line
These two events will dominate headlines in the coming weeks, but a cold, unemotional look at the facts strongly suggest these are not going to be material headwinds on the markets this fall.

Progress (or not) on tax cuts, earnings, economic data and geopolitical dramas are the major threats to this 2017 rally as we enter the stretch run into year end.

The Sevens Report is the daily market cheat sheet our subscribers use to keep up on markets, seize opportunities, avoid risks and get more assets.

The post Shutdown vs. Debt Ceiling, August 30, 2017 appeared first on Sevens Report.

source https://sevensreport.com/shutdown-vs-debt-ceiling-august-30-2017/

Harvey’s Market Impact, August 29, 2017

The Sevens Report is everything you need to know about the markets in your inbox by 7am, in 7 minutes or less. Start your free two-week trial today and see what a difference the Sevens Report can make.

We got a couple of questions from advisors yesterday about the market impact of Hurricane Harvey, so I imagined you might be getting similar calls from your clients.

So, I wanted to clearly and briefly outline the market impact of the storm.

Macro Impact: Not Much. From a macro standpoint (Fed policy, GDP growth, inflation) Hurricane Harvey won’t have much of an effect. While clearly a significant human tragedy for Houston and Southeast Texas, storms simply don’t have a lasting effect on markets. Katrina and Sandy had impacts on the local economies, but again, the broader macro influence wasn’t big. Harvey
does not change our “cautiously positive” stance on markets.

Micro Impact: The more palpable impact of Hurricane Harvey will be on specific market sectors, although I will not provide a list of “winners” given the damage wrought upon Houston and other parts of Texas.

That said, companies that likely will see increased demand due to the storm are: Refiners (HFC, DK), trucking companies (KNX), and equipment rental companies (URI). Unfortunately, there’s not a clean ETF for these sectors, and the only tradeable infrastructure ETF is a global ETF, so I don’t think it’s applicable here.

Companies that are likely to see business decline because of Harvey are: Natural gas and oil E&P companies due to a lower production and lower prices (ETF is XOP), and insurers.

Looking at insurers, the focus there is on property and casualty insurers as they will be the most affected by the storm. The big insurance ETF is KIE which traded down 1% on the news yesterday. But, while the first instinct would be to run from the insurance space, in some ways I view this as a potential opportunity to buy insurers on a dip (if this continues).

First, property and casualty insurers are just 40% of KIE. Yes, there will be more exposure through reinsurance (10.8% of assets), but that still leaves about half the assets of the ETF somewhat insulated from the storm. Additionally, 24% of the exposure of the fund is to the UK, and those should have little exposure to Harvey.

Point being, I’m not saying buy KIE today but I also want to look through the initial impulse to just shy away from the sector entirely. But, over the longer term, being long insurance companies are like betting with the house in a casino—they always win given enough time.

If Harvey creates an unreasonable downdraft in KIE, we will likely allocate capital to it for longer-term accounts. We’ll be watching this one going forward.

Time is money. Spend more time making money and less time researching markets every day. Subscribe to the 7sReport.com.

The post Harvey’s Market Impact, August 29, 2017 appeared first on Sevens Report.

source https://sevensreport.com/harveys-market-impact-august-29-2017/

Weekly Market Cheat Sheet, August 28, 2017

Yellen and Draghi Speech Preview, August 25, 2017

The Sevens Report is everything you need to know about the markets in your inbox by 7am, in 7 minutes or less. Start your free two-week trial today and see what a difference the Sevens Report can make.

Both Fed Chair Yellen and ECB President Draghi will speak at the conference today, and while neither is expected to say anything market moving, there are always surprises, so we want to preview their remarks briefly.

Yellen’s Speech: 10:00 A.M. EST

Key question: Will Yellen give us any color on whether we get a rate hike in December?

Likely Answer: (withheld for subscribers only—unlock specifics and ETFs by signing up for a free two-week trial).

What’s Expected: I’d give it about an 80% probability that Yellen does not even mention monetary policy
and instead just speaks broadly about the Fed’s role in helping ensure financial stability.

Wild Card to Watch: If there’s a risk of a surprise here, it’s for a “hawkish” surprise. Yellen could tie in the idea that in order to ensure future financial stability, the Fed needs to continue to remove accommodation and get interest rates back to normal levels.

Again, I think it’s unlikely she’d use this opportunity to discuss policy (unlike Bernanke, she’s never used Jackson Hole as a forum to discuss policy). Still, there is a chance  (20% if my other probability is 80%).

If she does surprise markets, though, look for a textbook (and potentially intense) “hawkish” market response: Dollar and bond yields up (maybe big), stocks down, commodities and gold down.

Draghi Speech: 3:00 P.M. EST

Key Question: Will Draghi forcefully hint at a tapering announcement in September?

Likely Answer: (withheld for subscribers only—unlock specifics and ETFs by signing up for a free two-week trial).

What’s Expected: Nothing specific. Draghi is not expected to speak or reference policy, mainly because the ECB meeting is less than three weeks away.

Wildcard to Watch: Commentary on the euro. While Draghi likely won’t say anything about expected policy, he might comment on the strength in the euro. It’s widely thought that the surging euro (up 10% vs. the dollar this year) would cause the ECB to be “dovish” and potentially delay tapering.

But, Draghi has pushed back on this notion recently, saying that the euro appreciation is the result of a better economy and rising inflation (hence virtuous).

If he reiterates those comments, or downplays the impact of a rising euro, that will be “hawkish” and the euro and German bond yields (and likely US Treasury yields) will rise, while the dollar will fall. This outcome would likely be positive for US stocks (on dollar weakness).

Bottom Line
In all likelihood, Jackson Hole should be a non-event, as it’s simply too close to the September ECB Meeting (Sept. 7) or the September Fed meeting (Sept. 20).

Time is money. Spend more time making money and less time researching markets every day. Subscribe to the 7sReport.com.

The post Yellen and Draghi Speech Preview, August 25, 2017 appeared first on Sevens Report.

source https://sevensreport.com/yellen-draghi-speech-preview-august-25-2017/

EIA Report & Oil Update, August 24, 2017

 

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James and more… see if The Sevens Report is right for you with a free two-week trial.

Yesterday’s EIA data was relatively in line with expectations, and the market reacted accordingly with a very choppy and insignificant response. Gasoline stocks did fall more than expected, and as a result RBOB futures outperformed WTI futures, which closed up 1.72% and 1.09%, respectively.

On the headlines, crude oil stocks fell -3.3M bbls vs. (E) -3.1, which also roughly matched the -3.6M bbl draw reported by the API late Tuesday. The change in gasoline supply was the only real surprise in the data print as stockpiles fell -1.2M vs. (E) -500K. And compared to the API, which reported gasoline inventories rose +1.4M bbls, that data point favored the bulls.

The rising trend of lower 48 production remains the most important influence on the energy markets right now, and there was a potential sign of fatigue in that figure as it rose just 12K b/d vs. the 2017 average of 25K b/d. In theory that is a slightly bullish influence, but it is only one report and US output did hit another multi-year high in this most recent release, which is still longer-term bearish. Additionally, Alaskan production continued to stabilize and show signs of turning higher into the fall, as production rose 14K b/d to the highest level since mid-July.

Bottom line, US production continues to trend higher despite a slight pullback in pace last week. And as long as US production is grinding to new multi-year highs, it will be a headwind on the entire complex, and the $50/barrel mark will continue to be a stubborn psychological and technical resistance level for WTI.

Time is money. Spend more time making money and less time researching markets every day.

The post EIA Report & Oil Update, August 24, 2017 appeared first on Sevens Report.

source https://sevensreport.com/eia-report-oil-update-august-24-2017/

Taxes Update, August 23, 2017

The Sevens Report is everything you need to know about the markets in your inbox by 7am, in 7 minutes or less. Start your free two-week trial today and see what a difference the Sevens Report can make.

What a difference a few days can make. By Thursday’s close, the S&P 500 was at a one-month low, and the prospects for any tax cuts or foreign profit repatriation tax holiday were dim.

Now, thanks to one Politico article, happy days are here  again, as the S&P 500 surged on the idea that the leaders in Washington are actually making progress on tax cuts! Hopefully, you can sense my sarcasm.

The lack of liquidity and attendance in the market is making these tax-related market mood swings worse than they otherwise should be, so I wanted to step back and provide a clear, unemotional update on the tax cut situation.

Starting with Tuesday’s Politico article, there were two reasons it was positive: The “Big Six,” and 22% to 25%. Starting with the latter, you know from this Report that right now, the market is expecting a corporate tax cut in Q1 2018 down to 28%. If that happens, it likely isn’t a materially positive or negative catalyst.

However, the Politico article implied consensus was coalescing around a corporate rate between 22% and 25%, obviously less than 28%. If that happens, it will represent a positive catalyst and a boost to corporate earnings, which will send stocks higher.

Now, on to the former. The “Big Six” is apparently the nickname that a key group of Republican leaders have given themselves in regards to tax negotiations. For clarity, the “Big Six” are: Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, National Economic Council Director Cohn, Senate Majority Leader McConnell, Speaker of the House Ryan, House Ways and Means Committee Chair Brady, and Senate Finance Committee Chair Hatch.

The Politico article implied the “Big Six” have been working much closer than previously thought, and that they have made a lot more progress on the structure of tax cuts (although plenty of details remain).

Bottom Line
The noise on this topic is officially deafening, but I want to cut through it and give you some hard takeaways on the outlook for tax cuts and the impact on the market.

1. Expect more tax-related volatility. If January through August is any guide, we can expect the ever-growing Washington soap opera to fully engulf the tax cut issue this fall. Like healthcare, there are multiple moving pieces, a lot of important, TV happy players (I’m not even including Trump), and a lot of pressure—as this is basically the Republicans’ last chance to get any legislative priorities accomplished before focus on the midterms starts in 2018.

2. The outlook for tax cuts wasn’t as bad as it seemed last Thursday, and it’s not as good as it seems right
now. The Politico article was positive, but it didn’t contain anything ground breaking. To boot, it appears that substantially controversial issues are being discussed in the tax cut package, including: Capping mortgage interest deductions, eliminating the deduction of state and local taxes against federal, corporate interest deductibility and other issues. These and foundational pieces of the current tax code, and removing them won’t be easy.

3. The sector winners from potential tax cuts remain the same as they’ve been all year: Super-cap tech (on foreign profit repatriation), healthcare (on foreign profit repatriation), retailers (they pay high corporate taxes) and oil and gas (high tax rates). FDN/QQQ, XLV/IBB/IHF, RTH and XLE/XOP are all ETFs that
should outperform if taxes surprise to the upside.

4. A prediction: Tax cuts happen in Q1 2018. I’m in the business of generating conclusions and opinions, so I’ll give one about this tax issue. I’d give it about a 65% chance that tax cuts/foreign repatriation holiday gets done by Q1 2018, and about a 50/50 chance those tax cuts positively surprise (i.e. the corporate rate drops below 28%). I do not expect any changes to personal taxes. The reason for this opinion, as I’ve said several times before, is self-preservation. Congressional Republicans are on the ballot in 2018, President Trump is not. If they fail to accomplish anything (no healthcare repeal, no tax cuts) and this Washington soap opera continues, then it’ll be Congressional Republicans who are out of a job. So, they have to get something done if they want to save their jobs. There’s no better predicator of action in Washington than the rule of self-preservation.

Time is money. Spend more time making money and less time researching markets every day.

The post Taxes Update, August 23, 2017 appeared first on Sevens Report.

source https://sevensreport.com/taxes-update-august-23-2017/

Commodities Update, August 22, 2017

The Sevens Report is everything you need to know about the markets in your inbox by 7am, in 7 minutes or less. Start your free two-week trial today and see what a difference the Sevens Report can make.

Commodities were mostly higher yesterday as gold continued to benefit from risk-off money flows and a weaker dollar, which also propped up copper futures. Meanwhile, crude oil bucked the trend and gave back most of Friday’s rally. The benchmark commodity index ETF, DBC, fell 1.21% thanks to he declines in energy futures.

Yesterday’s pullback in oil was a textbook retracement of Friday’s very “squeezy” rally. Shorts that were run out of the market late last week repositioned yesterday morning, which influenced the heavy trading that was largely dictated by technicals. WTI futures fell 2.22% on the day.

Friday’s big rally essentially created a “gap” in the market as the bulk of the move occurred in less than an hour, and on very light volume. That set things up for a reversal, and because newswires were very quiet yesterday, algos and technical traders took control of the market and largely “filled the gap” as we ended the day near where Friday’s rally began.

As far as the longer-term trend in oil goes, yesterday’s session was rather insignificant. The market remains in a broad, sideways range with the $50 mark continuing to act as a stubborn resistance level.

Fundamentally, the OPEC/NOPEC meeting in Vienna was anticlimactic. The previous extraordinary meeting was a non-event as well, and the market is beginning to shrug off OPEC-related headlines more and more as the cartel has been largely ineffective in recent months.

The oil market remain bearish for now, as US production continues to grind higher and OPEC has so far failed at trying to offer material support to the market through their policy decisions. Looking ahead, the $50 mark in WTI is a very important technical and psychological resistance level that will not likely be violated in the absence of a legitimate bullish catalyst.

Natural gas rallied 2.42% yesterday as the market continues to show signs of life in the late summer. There was no real catalyst for the move yesterday, but nat gas is continuing to show signs of putting a bottom in and forming support in
the $2.80-$2.90 area.

Looking ahead, the bulls have their sights set on reclaiming the $3.00 mark, and a close above would be a bullish development on the charts. That would match the supply side fundamentals showing a potential long-term shift of supply levels turning lower.

In the metals, the weaker dollar was the primary influence on the market yesterday, as gold rallied 0.39% and copper rallied 1.36%. Gold continued to catch a bid from the cautious feel in the market after last week’s sharp pullback in stocks, but futures failed to close at a new high and above the $1300 mark despite rallying through the important resistance level briefly in Friday trade.

For now, we remain cautious on gold as the technical outlook is rather cloudy. If, however, bond yields break- down further (more on that in the currencies and bonds section) then gold will surely have the support to break out through $1300 and begin a new uptrend.

Copper continued to grind higher yesterday with futures hitting the highest level since late 2014. With the price action in gold and the bond market both flashing a warning sign for risk assets, copper continues to flash a positive signal for the global economy.

Looking ahead, the path of least resistance is still higher for copper, which is a positive for the global economic outlook and risk assets. Yet, the biggest thing to watch with regard to the rally is the dollar, as a reversal back higher in the buck could significantly damage the uptrend in all metals.

Time is money. Spend more time making money and less time researching markets every day. Subscribe to the 7sReport.com.

 

The post Commodities Update, August 22, 2017 appeared first on Sevens Report.

source https://sevensreport.com/commodities-update-august-22-2017/

Weekly Market Cheat Sheet, August 21, 2017

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James and more… see if The Sevens Report is right for you with a free two-week trial.

Last Week in Review

There were some puts and takes from the economic data last week, but in aggregate it didn’t change the outlook for the US economy (still slow but steady growth) or the Fed (balance sheet reduction in September, a rate hike in December dependent on inflation).

I say puts and takes, because there were some decent economic reports last week, starting with a strong Retail Sales report. July retail sales beat estimates on both the headline (up 0.6% vs. 0.3%) and in the more important “Control Group” (retail sales ex-autos, gas and building materials), which rose 0.6% vs. (E) 0.4%, and saw a positive revision to June data.

That was a legitimate uptick in activity and an economic positive, although it remains to be seen whether that strength in consumer spending can be sustained past back-to-school and summer-vacation season.

The other highlights from last week were the August manufacturing surveys. August Empire Manufacturing surged to 25.2 vs. (E) 9.8 while Philly Fed Manufacturing also beat estimates at 18.9 vs. (E) 17.0. To boot, New Orders were strong in both reports (20.6 for Empire and 20.4 in Philly).

According to that type of data, we should see a big uptick in manufacturing activity in August, although I’ll again caution that these are surveys. And, unfortunately, with the exception of retail sales, the other “hard” economic data didn’t match these very strong survey results.

Specifically, July Industrial Production missed estimates, rising 0.2% vs. (E) 0.3%. But, more disconcertingly, the manufacturing subcomponent dropped -0.1% vs. (E) 0.2%. A lot of that decline was auto related, so it’s not quite as bad as it appears.

But, the overarching takeaway from last week’s data is that a wide gap remains between still-strong survey results (the PMIs) and actual, hard data (industrial production). We need that hard data to get consistently better if we have any hope of a rising economic tide carrying stocks higher for the rest of the year.

Turning to the Fed, the July meeting minutes were released last week, and while the market traded as though the minutes were slightly “dovish,” the reality is that they were neither hawkish nor dovish. The minutes confirmed that the Fed will reduce the balance sheet in September, although a rate hike in December seems very much 50/50.

Bottom line, it wasn’t a bad week for economic data, but we need evidence of economic acceleration to help push stocks higher, and that continues to be elusive.

This Week’s Preview

In aggregate, this is a quiet week for economic data (next week is the important week, as we get final global PMIs and the August jobs report), but there are still some potentially market-moving events to watch.

First, the Jackson Hole Policy Conference (i.e. conference/summer vacation) starts Thursday and runsthrough the weekend. The big names will be there: Draghi, Yellen, Carney, Fischer… but don’t expect anything that will move markets. It’s been made clear that Draghi doesn’t want to drop any hints about tapering until the ECB meeting in September (basically three weeks away). With the Fed, we know what to expect…balance sheet reduction in September.

Looking past central bankers, the key economic report this week will be the global flash PMIs, out Thursday morning. Again, we’re looking for the national PMI to match the strength we saw in Empire and Philly last week. If it does, that will be taken as an anecdotal positive. Internationally, there shouldn’t be any big surprises in this number.

Beyond the flash PMIs, July Durable Goods (Friday) is an important report, because it will give us greater insight into the state of “hard” economic data. If Durable Goods shows an uptick in corporate spending/investment, that might put upward pressure on expected Q3 GDP, which would be equity positive.

Bottom line, this week’s economic events should give more insight into the pace of the economy, but barring any big surprises, it’s likely the calm before the “storm” of next week.

Time is money. Spend more time making money and less time researching markets every day. Subscribe to the 7sReport.com.

The post Weekly Market Cheat Sheet, August 21, 2017 appeared first on Sevens Report.

source https://sevensreport.com/weekly-market-cheat-sheet-august-21-2017/

Why Taxes Caused Yesterday’s Selloff, August 18, 2017

Cut through the noise and understand what’s truly driving markets, as this new political and economic reality evolves. Get your free two-week trial of The Sevens Report: Everything you need to know about the market in your inbox by 7am, in 7 minutes or less.

If there was one “reason” for the sell-off yesterday, it was taxes—specifically, the dying dream of tax cuts and a profit repatriation holiday.

That’s why the Cohn headline spooked stocks. It’s not that markets particularly love Gary Cohn. Instead, he’s important because he’s viewed as a key figure in pushing tax cuts through in early 2018, an expectation that market has held on to (until, perhaps, yesterday).

If Cohn resigns, then the prospects for tax cuts (and almost more importantly, the foreign profit repatriation holiday) dim… significantly.

The declining expectations for tax cuts and profit repatriation hit tech especially hard yesterday and it combined with the underwhelming CSCO/NTAP earnings to push that sector sharply lower—and falling tech dragged the whole market down yesterday afternoon.

Now, going forward, clearly there’s been some damage done on the charts (the S&P 500 closed at a one-month low), and momentum indicators are showing warning signs.

And, those warning signs are appearing at a particularly dangerous time for markets (in the short term) as late August is particularly favorable for “air pockets” to form in the markets given that a lot of desks are minimally staffed due to summer vacation. Point being, I don’t think we’re done with the uptick in volatility yet—again due mostly to the calendar.

However, Nasdaq, SOXX and FDN all remain above last week’s lows. So, while Thursday’s trading was clearly painful, I’m not ready to get materially more defensive just yet (although clearly we’re watching those indicators very, very closely going forward).

The Sevens Report is the daily market cheat sheet our subscribers use to keep up on markets, seize opportunities, avoid risks and get more assets. Start your no obligation two-week trial today.

The post Why Taxes Caused Yesterday’s Selloff, August 18, 2017 appeared first on Sevens Report.

source https://sevensreport.com/taxes-caused-yesterdays-selloff-august-18-2017/

FOMC Meeting Takeaways, August 17, 2017

Brick and Mortar Retail Update, August 16, 2017

The Sevens Report is everything you need to know about the markets in your inbox by 7am, in 7 minutes or less. Start your free two-week trial today and see what a difference the Sevens Report can make.

From a single-stock standpoint, retail was again a quasi-disaster thanks to earnings (the strong retail sales number is more positive for credit card companies like V, LC and AXP than it is the retailers). Now, you would think at some point this year expectations for retailer results would get so low and the outlook so pessimistic that we’d start to get post-earnings rallies in retail on “not-as-bad-as-feared” results. Unfortunately, that’s just not happening.

Of the 10 biggest decliners in the S&P 500 Tuesday, six were retailers: Advance Auto Parts (AAP) (down more than 20%!), Coach (COH), Urban Outfitters (URBN), Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY), Ulta (ULTA) and Foot Locker (FL). Even Home Depot (HD), which posted strong numbers and raised guidance, couldn’t overcome the negativity. After an initial rally, HD fell 2.65%.

The contrarian in me is all over retail, as I’ve seldom seen a sector where there’s more pervasive negativity. However, I also remind myself that whale oil was once a contrarian opportunity… and we saw how that turned out.

I’m being a bit silly, as brick-and-mortar retailers aren’t whale oil, but the point is that these names simply aren’t cheap enough, and the outlooks aren’t negative enough—which is a scary thought from an industry standpoint. The contrarian in me will continue to watch the space, but for now, I see nothing to do.

Time is money. Spend more time making money and less time researching markets every day. Subscribe to the 7sReport.com.

The post Brick and Mortar Retail Update, August 16, 2017 appeared first on Sevens Report.

source https://sevensreport.com/brick-mortar-retail-update-august-16-2017/

Weekly Market Cheat Sheet, August 14, 2017

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James and more… see if The Sevens Report is right for you with a free two-week trial.

Last Week in Review

There was more underwhelming economic data last week, especially on the inflation front, as the prospects for an economic reflation in 2017 continued to dim.

From a Fed standpoint, the disappointing CPI and PPI reports further reduce the chances of a rate hike in December, although importantly the Fed is still expected to begin to reduce its balance sheet in September.

Starting with the headline numbers, CPI and PPI, they were both disappointing. The Producer Price Index declined to -0.1% vs. (E) 0.1% while the core figure was flat vs. (E) 0.2%. Meanwhile, the CPI report was slightly less underwhelming at 0.1% vs. 0.2% on the headline, and the same for the core.

While these aren’t horrible numbers, they aren’t good either, and the bottom line is that statistical inflation
remains stubbornly low, and it is appearing to continue to lose momentum. Again, for context, that’s a problem because in this environment, with (supposedly) strong economic growth and low unemployment, inflation should not be going down. Period. And the longer it goes on, the more it sparks worries that eventual deflation or disinflation will rise, and that’s not good for an economy with still-slow growth and extended asset markets.

Bottom line, even before the uptick in North Korea jitters this was a market in need of a positive catalyst to spur further gains. Unfortunately, the economic data (ex-jobs and sentiment surveys) has been consistently underwhelming, so the chances of a rising tide driven by an economic reflation continue to dim. And while a “dovish” number may be good for a mild pop in the S&P 500, soft data and a lower dollar/bond yields aren’t going to drive the market to material new highs.

This Week’s Preview

This week is busy, with mostly anecdotal data that will give us a better overall picture of the economy and inflation—and the main risk to stocks now is that the data comes in light, and along with low inflation that spurs fears of an economic loss of momentum. If that happens, stocks will take out last week’s lows.

The most important report this week will be tomorrow’s Retail Sales report. Consumer spending has been lackluster for most of 2017, but around now we see a typical seasonal uptick. That will be welcomed by markets if that appears again this year. If the number is soft, it’s going to spur worries about the pace of economic growth (remember, hard economic data hasn’t been great all year, it’s been the PMI surveys that have been strong).

Beyond retail sales, we also get a first look at August economic data via the Empire and Philly manufacturing indices. Both numbers haven’t been highly correlated to the national PMIs lately, but it’s still our most-recent economic data and it could move markets, especially if we see any weakening in the data. Empire comes tomorrow and Philly comes Thursday.

Turning to central banks, we get the Fed minutes from the July meeting on Wednesday, and the ECB minutes from the July meeting on Thursday. The Fed minutes are important because we will be looking for clues as to how eager or committed the Fed is to September balance sheet reduction. With the ECB, the key will be seeing how committed or eager the ECB is to announce tapering of QE in September. As is usually the case, there shouldn’t be any big surprises in these minutes, but they could slightly shift expectations for those two events (balance sheet reduction/announcement of tapering), and as such also move Treasury yields and Bund yields.

Finally, July Industrial Production and Housing Starts also come this week (Thursday and Wednesday,
respectively). Again, these are an opportunity for the hard data to rise and meet strong soft data surveys, and in doing so reassure investors that the economy’s accelerating.

Bottom line, none of the numbers this week are “major,” but in aggregate they will give us a lot more insight into the pace of economic growth and the outlook for the Fed and ECB. And, this market needs some economic reassurance to help bolster sentiment after last week. Better data and steady Fed/ECB are a needed boost markets this week.

Time is money. Spend more time making money and less time researching markets every day. Subscribe to the 7sReport.com.

The post Weekly Market Cheat Sheet, August 14, 2017 appeared first on Sevens Report.

source https://sevensreport.com/weekly-market-cheat-sheet-august-14-2017/

Why Yesterday’s Decline Wasn’t Just About North Korea, August 11, 2017

The Sevens Report is everything you need to know about the markets in your inbox by 7am, in 7 minutes or less. Start your free two-week trial today and see what a difference the Sevens Report can make.

Thursday was another risk-off day in the currency and bond markets thanks to North Korea, but there were some underwhelming economic reports that shouldn’t be missed, either. The Dollar Index fell 0.09% and never strayed too far from unchanged, in part due to the looming CPI report out this morning.

Starting with the obvious, North Korean angst again kept a lid on most currencies and pushed the yen higher, in classic risk-off trade (although importantly, the moves were mild and currencies and bonds did not confirm the angst in stocks).

However, beyond North Korea there was important economic data that did also impact currencies, and again I maintain that unless we get a big deterioration in the North Korea situation the data remains more important for the remainder than the geopolitical landscape.

First, US PPI was soft, declining for the first time in months and again reinforcing the idea of slowing inflation. Now, PPI isn’t as important to the Fed or markets as CPI, but the bottom line is that if we are in (or approaching) an economic reflation, we shouldn’t see these types of underwhelming inflation reports.

That soft PPI weighed slightly on the dollar and bond yields, although again it was largely overshadowed from a market standpoint by North Korea and today’s CPI.

Looking internationally, the euro was flat all day vs. the dollar amidst little news, while the pound dipped 0.26%. The reason for the pound weakness wasn’t just risk off in the markets. It also was due to an underwhelming Industrial Production report. While the headline number beat estimates (0.5% vs. (E) 0.2%), the manufacturing sub-component was flat vs. (E) 0.2%. That was why the pound dipped back below 1.30 vs. the dollar.

The big gainer vs. the dollar yesterday was, again, the yen, which rallied 0.55% on a standard risk-off move. Economic data in Japan yesterday was, at best, mixed, but the yen isn’t trading off data right now… it’s trading off sentiment. And, the North Korea news is causing a flight to safety, and that means higher yen, higher Treasuries and, for now, higher gold.

Turning to bonds, Treasuries rallied as the 10 year rose 0.11% and the 10-year yield fell below support at 2.22%, although that drop happened into the close.

Bottom line, this flare up in North Korea has put the 10-year yield at a critical technical crossroads. If CPI is light this morning, the 10-year yield will likely drop below 2.20%. At that point, a test of the 2017 lows certainly isn’t out of the question. And, we’d find that disconcerting for multiple reasons, chief of which because it would imply too low inflation and largely destroy the chances for a reflationary rally in stocks in 2017.

We maintain that an economic reflation (higher growth, higher inflation, higher rates) is the only path to a sustainable medium- and long-term rally. While it may cause more of a decline short term, the medium- and longer-term investor in us is hoping for a strong CPI report later today. Unfortunately, I have a sneaking suspicion I will be disappointed. I hope I’m wrong.

Time is money. Spend more time making money and less time researching markets every day. Subscribe to the 7sReport.com.

The post Why Yesterday’s Decline Wasn’t Just About North Korea, August 11, 2017 appeared first on Sevens Report.

source https://sevensreport.com/yesterdays-decline-wasnt-just-north-korea-august-11-2017/

North Korea Update, August 10, 2017

Why the Phillips Curve Matters to You, August 8, 2017

The Sevens Report is everything you need to know about the markets in your inbox by 7am, in 7 minutes or less. Start your free two-week trial today and see what a difference the Sevens Report can make.

Pushing unemployment lower should, eventually, cause inflation—unless this entire theory (upon which most of monetary policy is based) is incorrect.

The Phillips curve is a term you’re likely seeing and hearing more recently than at any time previously in your career (regardless of how long it is). The reason the Phillips curve is being discussed so much is simple: There’s a growing school of thought that thinks the Phillips curve is broken, and if that’s the case, then the Fed and other central banks may be largely powerless to spur inflation (which is a potential negative for the broad markets).

Before we get into this issue, though, first lets get a bit of background on the Phillips curve. Basically, the Phillips curve is just a graph of this simple idea: Low unemployment creates higher inflation.

From a commonsense standpoint, it is logical. Less available workers and robust business activity (so low supply and high demand for workers) will cause salaries (the “price” of a worker) to rise, and that in turn will flow through to the entire economy and spur price inflation.

So, put simply, the Phillips curve says low unemployment will spur inflation. And, this idea has been the cornerstone of Fed policy for decades and largely explains the Fed’s strategy post financial crisis.

Plunging unemployment: At some point, this must create inflation, or at least that’s what Yellen believes.

But, there’s a small problem: It doesn’t appear to be working in today’s economy, as historically low unemployment is failing to spur inflation.

Now, this may seem like a theoretical, academic conversation, but it has real, near-term market consequences.

For instance, the entire mid-July rally in stocks came because the Fed began to note low inflation more than low unemployment.

That caused the decline in Treasury yields and exacerbated the drop in the dollar—and that helped spur a rally in stocks.

However, that may have changed with Friday’s jobs report. The unemployment rate hit 4.3%, matching a fresh low for this expansion (i.e. since the financial crisis). And, unemployment that low will get the Fed’s attention (at least Yellen’s attention) because while there is a debate about the Phillips curve still being accurate, the bottom line is that the Fed still follows it. At some point, if unemployment continues to drop, the Fed will have to continue with rate increases regardless of what’s happening with inflation.

And, that could have an important impact on returns and performance.

Here’s why: If unemployment grinds towards 4% or below, the Fed will have to get hawkish or either 1) Abandon decades of monetary policy that has largely worked, or 2) Risk a significant rise in inflation down the road (according to the Phillips curve) that would require a sharp, painful increase in interest rates—a move that almost certainly would put the US economy into recession.

The practical investment takeaways are this: (withheld for subscribers of the 7sReport—sign up for your free two-week trial to unlock). 

The post Why the Phillips Curve Matters to You, August 8, 2017 appeared first on Sevens Report.

source https://sevensreport.com/phillips-curve-matters-august-8-2017/

Weekly Market Cheat Sheet, August 7, 2017

Is the Earnings Rally Losing Steam?

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James and more… see if The Sevens Report is right for you with a free two-week trial.

Earnings have been an unsung hero of the 2017 rally, but there are some anecdotal signs that strong earnings may already be fully priced into stocks, leaving a lack of potential positive catalysts given the macro environment.

Now, to be clear, earnings season has been (on the surface) good. From a broad standpoint, the results have pushed expected 2018 S&P 500 EPS slightly higher (to $139) and that’s enough to justify current valuations, taken in the context of a calm macro horizon and still-low bond yields.

However, the market’s reaction to strong earnings is sending some caution signals throughout the investor
community. Specifically, according to a BAML report I read earlier this week, the vast majority of companies who reported a beat on the top line (revenues) and bottom line (earnings) saw virtually no post-earnings rally this quarter. Getting specific, by the published date of the report (earlier this week) 174 S&P 500 companies had beat on the top and bottom line, yet the average gain for those stocks 24 hours after the announcement was… 0%. They were flat. To boot, five days after the results, on average these 174 companies had underperformed the market!

That’s in stark contrast to the 1.6%, 24-hour gain that companies who beat on the revenues and earnings have enjoyed, on average, since 2000.

In fact, the last time we saw this type of post earnings/sales beat non-reaction was Q2 of 2000. It could be random, but that’s not exactly the best reference point.

So, if we’re facing a market that’s fully priced in strong earnings, the important question then becomes, what will spur even more earnings growth?

Potential answers are: 1) A rising tide of economic activity, although that’s not currently happening. Another is 2) A surge in productivity that increases the bottom line. But, productivity growth has been elusive for nearly a decade, and it’s unclear what would suddenly spark a revival. Finally, another candidate is 3) Rising inflation that would allow for price and margin increases. Yet as we know, that’s not exactly threatening right now, either.

Bottom line, earnings have been the unsung hero of this market throughout 2017, but this is a, “What Have You Don’t For Me Lately” market, especially at nearly 18X next year’s earnings. If earnings growth begins to slow and we don’t get any uptick in economic growth or pro-growth policies from Washington, then it’s hard to see what will push this market higher beyond just general momentum (and general momentum may be fading, at least according to the price action in tech). To be clear, the trend in stocks is still higher, but the environment isn’t as benign as sentiment, the VIX or the financial media would have you believe.

Time is money. Spend more time making money and less time researching markets every day—start your free trial of the Sevens Report now.

The post Is the Earnings Rally Losing Steam? appeared first on Sevens Report.

source https://sevensreport.com/earnings-rally-losing-steam/

Goldilocks Jobs Report Preview, August 3, 2017

Goldilocks Jobs Report Preview: What Will Make the Report too Hot, too Cold, or Just Right?

What a difference a month makes. For June’s jobs report, we were equally worried about a “Too Hot” report sending bond yields materially higher, and a “Too Cold” report implying a loss of momentum in the jobs market. Now, almost all the risks to this July report are skewed towards “Too Cold” given the drop in inflation we’ve seen since early July.

More specifically, even if the jobs report is a blow-outnumber, unless it’s accompanied by a big surge in wages it’s not going to elicit a “hawkish” reaction from the Fed or a spike in Treasury yields. Point being, the risk of the report being “Too Hot” is a lot lower than usual, given the drop in inflation.

Looking at the potential impact of this jobs report on the rally, it’s important realize that the dip in inflation since July has been a bullish catalyst, because economic data has stayed firm. So, low inflation makes the Fed more dovish, but economic growth stays constant, and that’s good for stocks.

However, that equation changes if US economic data starts to follow inflation lower (i.e. a big miss on the jobs number). As a result, the “Too Cold” scenario is the biggest risk for stocks heading into tomorrow’s report.

“Too Hot” Scenario (A December Rate Hike Becomes More Certain)

• >250k Job Adds, < 4.1% Unemployment, > 2.8% YOY wage increase. A number this hot will refute the lower inflation of July and reintroduce the potential for a “not dovish” Fed. Likely Market Reaction: We should see a powerful re-engagement of the “reflation trade” from June..(withheld for subscribers only—unlock specifics and ETFs by signing up for a free two-week trial).

“Just Right” Scenario (Confirms Expectations of September Balance Sheet Reduction & Likely December Hike)

• 125k–250k Job Adds, > 4.1% Unemployment Rate, 2.5%-2.8% YOY wage increase. This is the best-case scenario for stocks, as it would reinforce the current expectation of balance sheet reduction in September, and (probably) one more 25-bps rate hike in December. Likely Market Reaction: A knee-jerk, mild stock rally, but how powerful the rally is will depend on…(withheld for subscribers only—unlock specifics and ETFs by signing up for a free two-week trial).

“Too Cold” Scenario (Economic Growth Potentially Stalling)

• < 100k Job Adds, < 2.5% YOY Wage Gains. If we see a big disappointment in the jobs number and a further softening of wage inflation, that will send bond yields lower, and that would likely weigh on stocks as it will raise concerns about economic growth. Likely Market Reaction: Bonds and gold should surge and…(withheld for subscribers only—unlock specifics and ETFs by signing up for a free two-week trial).`

Bottom Line

From a short-term equity standpoint, the best outcome is for “Just Right” job adds (so between 100k-250k) and “Too Cold” wages (so less than 2.5% yoy). That will likely make the Fed incrementally more “dovish,” and take a December rate hike off the table, although it shouldn’t stay the Balance Sheet Reduction in September.

Beyond the short term, it’s important to remember that an economic reflation is the key to sustainably higher stock prices. For anyone with a medium- or long-term time horizon (so almost all of us), I’d gladly take better growth and higher inflation over falling inflation and stagnant growth, even if it meant some short term stock weakness.

Cut through the noise and understand what’s truly driving markets, as this new political and economic reality evolves. The Sevens Report is the daily market cheat sheet our subscribers use to keep up on markets, seize opportunities, avoid risks and get more assets. Sign up for your free two-week trial today and see the difference 7 minutes can make. 

The post Goldilocks Jobs Report Preview, August 3, 2017 appeared first on Sevens Report.

source https://sevensreport.com/goldilocks-jobs-report-preview-august-3-2017/

Are Banks About to Break Out?

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James and more… see if The Sevens Report is right for you with a free two-week trial.

Banks were again the highlight, as BKX rose 0.83%, and that pulled the Financials SPDR (XLF) up 0.72%. The bank stock strength came despite the decline in yields, which we think is notable. In fact, over the past several trading days, bank stock performance has decoupled from the daily gyrations of Treasury yields, and we think that potentially signals two important events.

Regardless, this price action in banks is potentially important, because this market must be led higher by either tech or banks/financials. If the former is faltering (and I’m not saying it is), then the latter must assume a leadership role in order for this really to continue.First, it implies bank investors are starting to focus on the value in the sector and on the capital return plans from banks, which could boost total return. Second, it potentially implies that investors aren’t fearing a renewed plunge in Treasury yields (if right, that could be a positive for the markets).

Bottom Line

This remains a market broadly in search of a catalyst, but absent any news, the path of least resistance remains higher, buoyed by an incrementally dovish Fed, solid earnings growth, and ok (if unimpressive) economic data.

Nonetheless, complacency, represented via a low VIX, remains on the rise, and markets are still stretched by any valuation metric. Barring an uptick in economic growth or inflation, it remains unclear what will power stocks materially higher from here. For now, the trend remains higher.

Time is money. Spend more time making money and less time researching markets every day—start your free trial of the Sevens Report now.

The post Are Banks About to Break Out? appeared first on Sevens Report.

source https://sevensreport.com/are-banks-about-to-break-out/